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The NestAbode Journal — field notes from Toronto
Over the last 90 days, homes in East End-Danforth closed at an average of 107.7 percent of their asking price. Nearly six in ten sold for more than the seller asked.
In the same city, over the same 90 days, Rosedale-Moore Park closed at 96.1 percent. Thirteen percent sold over asking.
That is a gap of more than eleven points between two Toronto neighbourhoods, at the same moment. Any headline reporting “the Toronto market” as a single number is averaging those two together and describing a city nobody actually lives in.
What follows is drawn from closed sales across the region over the last 90 days — not listings, not asking prices. Closings.
Where the competition actually is
The east end is the story. East End-Danforth at 107.7 percent of asking. Danforth Village-East York at 107.4. South Riverdale, on 115 sales, at 107.1. Greenwood-Coxwell at 105.7. In the west, Roncesvalles at 105.4 and High Park North at 105.3. The Beaches at 103.9.
These are not small samples or flukes. South Riverdale alone had 115 closings. In these pockets, roughly half of everything that sold went for more than the asking price. If you are buying there, you are not negotiating — you are competing, and you should plan for it.
Where it isn’t
Rosedale-Moore Park at 96.1 percent of asking, on 69 sales averaging $2,254,235. Newtonbrook East at 96.3. Moss Park at 96.3, where fewer than nine percent sold over asking. Bay Street Corridor, on 147 sales, at 96.7. Bedford Park-Nortown at 96.7. Bayview Village at 96.7.
Two different things are happening here. The prestige freehold pockets and the downtown condo corridors are both soft, but for different reasons — one is a thin market for expensive houses, the other a deep market full of similar units. Either way, if you are selling in these areas, the list price is the start of a conversation, not a target.
Houses and condos are not the same market
Across the region over the last 90 days, 33,157 freehold homes closed. They averaged 98.2 percent of asking, 20.3 percent sold over asking, and the average price was $893,395.
In the same window, 9,187 condos closed. They averaged 97.3 percent of asking, 12.3 percent sold over asking, average price $586,355.
A point of difference in percent-of-asking sounds minor. It isn’t. On a $900,000 house that is nine thousand dollars — and the more telling figure is the second one. A freehold seller has nearly twice the chance of a competitive situation as a condo seller. Same city, same month, structurally different odds.
And the market has been getting stronger
This surprised me, so here is the full year rather than the flattering part. Average percent of asking, month by month:
| Month | % of asking | Month | % of asking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 97.8 | Mar 2026 | 97.2 |
| Oct 2025 | 97.4 | Apr 2026 | 97.5 |
| Nov 2025 | 97.5 | May 2026 | 97.8 |
| Dec 2025 | 97.4 | Jun 2026 | 98.1 |
| Jan 2026 | 97.2 | Jul 2026 | 98.1 |
| Feb 2026 | 96.9 |
February was the floor. Every month since has been level or better. The share of homes selling over asking tells the same story — 13.3 percent in February, 18.9 percent by June.
Volume moved too. June saw 15,495 closings and July 16,767 — the two busiest months in the period.
Across the region
Markham is the strongest market I can find: 99.4 percent of asking, with 27.8 percent of homes selling over. Richmond Hill follows at 98.8 percent, Brampton at 98.3. Oakville sits at the other end at 96.6 percent, despite an average price of $1,499,014 — expensive and patient at the same time.
The honest caveat
Everything above describes deals that closed. A sale takes about seven weeks to go from firm to closed, so these are decisions people made in roughly May and June. It is the most reliable data available — a closing is a fact, where a list price is an opinion — but it is a rear-view mirror, and I would rather you know that than mistake it for live coverage.
What I’d take from this
If you are buying, the question is not “is the market hot” — it is which side of the split your street is on. Eleven points apart, a twenty-minute drive between them.
If you are selling, price off what actually closed near you, not off what your neighbours are asking. In half this city those are very different numbers.
If you are watching, the useful fact is that February was the bottom and the recovery has been steady rather than dramatic. That is usually the kind that lasts.
Next month I’m taking a single neighbourhood and going through it properly. If there’s one you want me to look at, get in touch and tell me.
Stevie Crawford, Real Estate Broker
