"TRREB Market Outlook & Year in Review: Lower Sales and Prices Predicted for GTA Real Estate in 2023"
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has provided a comprehensive overview of the state of the Greater Toronto Area's (GTA) real estate market with its recently released Market Outlook & Year in Review report. The report highlights how higher immigration levels and increased borrowing costs will impact the housing market, causing lower sales and a decline in average selling prices for all property types.
In 2023, an estimated 70,000 sales are projected, a decrease of 4% compared to 2022. The average selling price for all home types combined is expected to be $1,140,000, a drop of approximately 4% from 2022 estimates. Although inventory levels are expected to remain low, 39% of homeowners are contemplating listing their homes for sale in 2023, up from 35% in 2022. As a result, demand for ownership housing is predicted to pick up, and market conditions will tighten.
With the GTA's status as the single-greatest metropolitan beneficiary of immigration in Canada, the report notes that the population is expected to grow at a record pace in 2023. Ipsos polling also indicates increased demand for homeownership in 2023, with buying intentions up slightly compared to the fall poll of 2021.
The commercial market is expected to experience varying trends, including a tightening of industrial supply and a slight increase in Q3 transaction activity in the GTA office market. The report also explores various topics such as the new homes market, interest rate outlook, and recommendations to scale up electric vehicle (EV) charging solutions.
The report emphasizes the importance of planned transportation infrastructure that can meet the needs of the expected new population and continued economic growth. Younger people are expected to continue relying on transit, and by 2051, over 1.3 million people under 45 years old will be taking transit daily.
The report highlights the importance of aligning transportation and housing policy with economic development to ensure efficient use of infrastructure investment. All stakeholders should work together to improve the balance of flow in opposite directions on highways, and employment growth should move away from the traditional downtown-centric approach.
In summary, the TRREB's Market Outlook & Year in Review report provides insight into the trends and forecasts of the real estate market in the GTA. The report indicates the impact of higher immigration levels and increased borrowing costs on the housing market, resulting in lower sales and declining prices.
However, with an expected record population growth in 2023, the demand for ownership housing is predicted to pick up, and market conditions will tighten. The report is a valuable resource for policymakers, investors, and real estate professionals to better understand the state of the Toronto real estate market.
